Notes for Homework 6, due Mon. Sept 30

Notes for Bayesian conditional probability

Notes for the expected value of a game

Notes for converting between classic and modern pari-mutuel statements of profit and risk.

Notes for Homework 5, due September 23

 Notes for the birthday problem

Notes for the Monty Hall problem

Notes for the probabilities of drawing cards from a deck

Notes for the odds of missing a rare side effect
 

 

Notes for Homework 4, due September 16

Notes on contingency tables

In Excel: the sum of a row will be of the form
=sum(a1:c1) where the letters are the changing indices

The sum of a column will be
=sum(a1:a5) where the numbers are the changing indices

Notes on the Central Limit Theorem

In Excel: In my version of Excel, the function that gives you the proportion less than a z-score is

=norm.dist(x, mean, standard_dev, cumulative)

The cumulative value should be 1 always.

If we are doing a Central Limit z-score based on the average of a sample, the instruction is changed as follows. 

=norm.dist(x, mean, standard_dev/sqrt(n), cumulative)

where n is the size of the sample.

Notes on probabilities of independent trials

In Excel: Again, different versions of Excel have different spelling of functions, and in my version the function is

=binom.dist(r, n, p, cumulative)

If cumulative = 0, you get the value of exactly r successes in n trials.

If cumulative = 1, you get the value of at least r successes in n trials.